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DocuSign Envelope ID: D1741000-3D1E-44DA-9A7F-7202AA31952B Item 6b THE CITY OF AGENDA REPORT Pleasanton Unified School District CITY COUNCIL AND BOARD OF TRUSTEES PLEASANTON. JOINT MEETING � September 30, 2021 TITLE: PLEASANTON UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT (PUSD) GROWTH PROJECTIONS RECOMMENDATION Receive information regarding Pleasanton Unified School District growth projections. SUMMARY Assistant Superintendent of Business Service, Ahmad Sheikholeslami will provide an update on the district's demographic projections. The district annually updates its enrollment projections. The projections are updated after the California Basic Educational Data System (CBEDS) annual collection date which occurs on the first Wednesday in October. Prior to the pandemic, district enrollment remained steady with increased enrollment in the forecast based on new housing and housing turnover (mobility factor). Prior to the pandemic, the district had averaged about 14,850 students for the last decade. The enrollment for 2020/21 was 14,469 which was about a 400 student decline from the previous school year. The enrollment oroiection study we conducted in January 2021 included many uncertainties but indicated a flattening of the enrollment and decline in enrollment in the coming years with a low point occurring in 2023/24 at about 14,200 students. Enrollment would then increase as new housing projects including the East Pleasanton project would come online to a projected enrollment of about 14,700 in 2027/28. Attachment 1 is the district's presentation from that study for reference. Our current enrollment numbers for the current school year 2021/22 are about 14,068 which point to further enrollment loss due to the pandemic. The enrollment decline is a county and statewide trend. Additional analysis by our demographer and planning work will be needed to determine if these are more short-term or long-term trends. Critically important to our enrollment projection planning is the City's work with the Housing Element Plan and the zoning for the additional Dousing. The district looks forward to working with the City collaboratively on this work so the impacts on the schools can be taken into consideration. Our latest forecast included the East Pleasanton project housing starting to come online starting on 2023/24. Changes to the City planning timeline and the increased units from the new housing element will need to be updated in our new projections.