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Projected Enrollments from 2007 to 2017 Pleasanton Unified School District The current concepts call for between 330 and 480 ATT units; our forecast includes 450 residences based on the latest communications, but these long-range numbers are still in-flux. The thinking a year ago was for over 1,000, for instance. Another 250 regular (not restricted to seniors) attached units are projected on eastern Busch Road at the end of the forecast period. Also forecast in the next four-to- ten years are an average of just over 70 SFD homes annually on sites concentrated in the south and southeast (including "Lund Ranch", "Sportorno" and "Oak Grove"). Those developments, along with planned seniors housing (on a different site on eastern Busch Road as well as by the EI Charo/I-580 junction), would result in a total number of residences in the city that still does not reach the 29,000- unit cap. Some additional units thus can occur after 2017.18 Concluding Commentarx While fluctuating new housing expectations, especially in Hacienda Business Park, can significantly alter the enrollment projections, the even greater potential forecast differences are in the evolving kindergarten populations. Those totals, of course, have subsequent impacts on all of the remaining grades over time. Your district had rising kindergarten enrollments in the last two years and that was the main source of the deviation from our forecast. We have added to our kindergarten expectations as a result, and these higher kindergarten numbers have created larger overall (K-12) projections. We, nonetheless, are projecting a modest reduction in next year's kindergarten total (i.e., in falling from the current 959 to 915 in October 2008; see Appendix Al on the following page), which may be overly conservative again. We are not saying that another class of 959 kindergartners could not happen next year; it definitely could. But none of the data, including the trends in existing housing, the local birth counts, and the lower new dwellings amounts (compared to past years), let alone the concerns related to the mortgage crisis, indicates a kindergarten of that size for 2008. As we noted earlier, the district should evaluate the kindergarten registration numbers as they become known for the pending school year and adjust the forecast accordingly. Sincerely, ~ l~/` . homas R. Williams, Principal Demographer for Enrollment Projection Consultants 1e Appreciation for their insights into the planned and potential new housing is again due to Director Jerry Iserson and Principal Planner Janice Stern of the City of Pleasanton Planning & Community Development Department. All final forecast decisions on the timing and amounts, however, were made by this demographer based on the local and broader housing market situations. We should note that these annual projected amounts can differ from the City's for several reasons, including that (1) our forecast is for when the units are first occupied rather than issued building permits, so our totals include additional residences that have already been permitted (and counted against the cap) but not completed, and (2) we are projecting from October 1 to October 1 rather than by calendar years. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 21