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San Francisco Bay r~rea Draft Regional Housing Needs 1~lllocation, 4~h Revision The location and amount of existing jobs in the region is estimated by ABAG's forecasting model, as documented in Projections. Specifically, existing employment is based on: 1) existing regional and local job data, and 2) regional and local economic trends, attractiveness of commercial/industrial locations, including labor force costs, housing prices, travel costs, access to potential employees, markets, and similar businesses. The inclusion of existing employment as a RHNA factor ensures that regional housing need is allocated in a manner consistent with regional policies and state RHNA objectives. Planning for more housing in communities with existing jobs can address historic jobs- housing imbalances. More housing in existing job centers may also encourage infill and efficient development patterns through higher densities in existing communities. There is also the potential for reduced inter- and infra-regional vehicle miles traveled and shorter commutes, as more housing would be planned in proximity to existing jobs. More housing near jobs may also encourage alternative modes of travel, including walking and public transportation, as most existing jobs centers in the region are also transit rich. Planning for housing near existing jobs also places less development pressure on outlying areas, especially in rural areas with agricultural lands and protected open space. Employment Growth, 22.5 Percent The location and amount of employment growth in the region is projected by ABAG's forecasting model, as documented in Projections. Specifically, employment growth is based on: 1) local land use policies and plans; 2) economic trends, such as national and regional industrial assumptions, attractiveness of commercial/industrial locations, including labor force costs, housing prices, travel costs, access to potential employees, markets, and similar businesses; and 3) regional policy. Inclusion of local land use policies and plans and economic trends in ABAG's employment growth forecast ensures that the use of employment growth as a RHNA factor is consistent with local policies, plans, and local capacity for job growth. Employment growth in Projections considers all the land protection and growth policies, physical constraints, and the employment-related factors identified by the state and the HMC for inclusion in the allocation methodology, including existing jobs centers, home-based businesses, employed residents, housing prices, household income and employment at private universities, and campuses of the California State University and the University of California. The inclusion of employment growth as a RHNA factor ensures that the regional housing need is allocated to areas where job growth is forecasted to occur during the RHNA period. These areas would have the responsibility of providing housing for the additional jobs that are added to the region. These areas are typically served by the region's transit infrastructure. Matching housing to jobs would still have the potential for reducing vehicle miles traveled and encouraging alternative modes of travel. This employment factor would place housing in existing communities, but would place less of the housing in the most urbanized cities in the region. As with household growth, inclusion of regional policies in ABAG's Projections ensures that the use of employment growth as a RHNA factor is consistent with both state and regional polices regarding growth, infill development, and efficient use of land. This is because regional policies in Projections assume that relatively more job growth will occur in existing urbanized communities and near transit, while less growth is projected in outlying communities with no transit infrastructure, including those with agricultural areas and open august 2U0?, Page 9