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there would be little risk to Pleasanton ratepayers. If the growth happens in two years and no permits are sold, then there is a risk. Mr. Pico asked if the $67 million figure was accurate. Mr. Lawson did not think so. If Dublin began restricting growth along with other communities, it would take a while before a backlash occurred. The real issue is whether growth stops entirely. If DSRSD's growth is reduced to 20,000 DUE' s instead of 29,000, that can be planned for and will be funded from connection fees, not from the ratepayers. Ms. Ayala referred to one of the charts that indicated 1,400 DUE's per year were predicted. How many years was that for and how many were for Pleasanton? Mr. Lawson said that covers 25 years and approximately 300 would come from Pleasanton. He clarified that the DUE's are not just dwelling units, but represents commercial units as well. Mr. Pico indicated there are 12,000 dwelling units that have a vested right to build. Mr. Tarver indicated the discussions have been regarding how to insulate the ratepayers and guarantee the debt so that existing users don't pay for the expansion. He referred to Mr. Lawson's presentation to LAVWMA and the four-year cycle in which a downturn in connections could be compensated for in the next few years. Mr. Lawson explained that the analysis took the worst four-year period since 1982. It predicted that the downturn would repeat two years from now and then there would be a recovery which would make up what was not sold. That that would happen again. That is what protects the existing ratepayers. The $1,600 add on is to protect the ratepayers. Mr. Pico believed that in addition to the $1,600 add on, there is still a large reserve to protect the ratepayers. Mr. Lawson said there is two year's worth of debt service or $35 million. The proposed fee of $9,900 is designed so that Pleasanton has its planned growth for the next two years. If suddenly only 35% of expected DUE sales or sold in the next four years, there is still $35 million in the fund. Once you get through the next expansion phase, there will start to be too much money collected. The debt service is a fixed fee and the connection rates will have been adjusted each year for inflation. At some point, it can no longer be justified. Mr. Tarver stated that the analysis said after eight years, the pressure is off. If you get the predicted growth. Pleasanton City Council 17 09/07/99 Meeting