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Pmiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 Pleasanton Unified School District After extensive EPC fieldwork, including meetings with sales representatives of all of the active developments and receiving a detailed site-by-site review from Pianning Director Jerry Iserson and Principal Planner Janice Stern at the City, we have again assembled site-specific new housing projections. During the next three years, this includes completion of the "Ironwood" developments (with 155 remaining as of Oct. 1, 2005) on the north side of Busch Road, the "Sycamore Heights" tract (with 24 left, plus 4 nearby) at the east end of Sycamore Creek Way, and the "Pheasant Ridge" and "Carlton Oaks" projects (with 50 remaining) on the west side of 1-680. Another 95 estate homes, of the 111 left to build, are projected at Ruby Hill by 2008. The first 80 residences in the "Vineyard" area, to the west of Ruby Hill, are also expected during the next three years. The total number of units projected is 220 In 2006 (Le. from Oct. 1, 2005, through Sept. 30, 2006), which is comparable to the rate in recent years, followed by the same amount in 2007 and then 215 in 2008 (see Table 6 on the lower half of page 14). Note that all six of these locations will have mainly SFD residences, with some having a few duets (plus seniors housing at Ironwood). The only regular ATT housing expected during these years is a 45-unit development at the corner of Birch Creek Drive and Vineyard Avenue. Attached units will become a significant share of the new housing from 2009 to 2015, when we are again projecting 215 new residences annually. A larger percentage of that total, however, is in A TT dwellings (compared to our last forecast). Several of the potential detached-home developments in the southeast hills are now expected to have lower-than-requested totals due to the steep hillsides. The likely numbers also have been reduced south of the "Vineyard" area and In the unincorporated part of Happy Valley. Replacing those residences in the 215-per-year total are higher projected levels of ATT housing. This includes, for the first time in our projections, a roughly 345-unit complex at the north edge of Stoneridge Mall, next to the proposed West Pleasanton BART station." We are projecting that between 2009 and 2011. Also included are the "Bay Rock" site on West Las Positas and the "Shaklee" and "Roche" properties near the corner of Gibraltar and Willow within the Hacienda Business Park. The number of units in each of those projects is highly speculative at this time. Regardless of that final total, however, the first units could start being occupied in about 2012 (Le. projected once the Stoneridge development is completed), after which the local market should be able to absorb an average of around 125 units per year. Our aggregate new housing projections for the next decade are 2,160 additional units, of which 56% (1,220) are SFD residences, 50 are duet units and 890 are in all other types of attached dwelling units. These units are projected to generate 1,584 students (see bottom row of Appendix A 1). Conclusion Just as we stated a year ago, the probable pending enrollment is a mix of aging population trends in the established neighborhoods and large numbers of students coming from new housing. This combination will add mainly to the high school enrollments over the next five years. All of the forecast factors, however, clearly suggest a declining elementary enrollment. That decline could be more significant than we have projected. Sincwely, .- I /"'.f ",.'}1...( ....{v-'~ ~... Thomas R. Williams, Principal Demographer for Enrollment Projection Consultants " The official proposal is for 350 units, but that probably will be revised as it goes through the planning process. We have projected 345 to keep the overall A TT numbers rounded to the nearest ten. Enroliment ProJection Gansu/tam;: Pape 15