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Base//ne Forecasts -- <br /> <br /> Travel Pattern <br /> <br /> The results of the traffic model show that the Tri-Valley will continue to experience out- <br /> commuting and in-commuting. Overall, the basellne forecasts show 18,000 more employed <br /> residents than jobs, which would reinforce the Tri-Valley's existing pattern of net out- <br /> commuting. <br /> <br /> Table 4-3 <br /> Jobs Versus Workers (Baseline Growth Forecasts) <br /> <br /> Year Jobs Workers <br /> <br /> 1990 111,651 122,882 <br /> 2000 160,420 167,826 -- <br /> 2010 202,887 221,431 <br /> <br /> Figure 4-4 shows that the traffic model predicts 63 percent of the trips will be internal in <br /> 2010, compared to 50 percent today. The other 37 percent of trips will be primarily in- <br /> commuting (16 percent) and out-commuting (18 percent). Only four percent of trips during <br /> commute hours will be through trips (traffic from other areas passing through the Tri- <br /> Valley). However, this four percent looms large on some parts of the freeway <br /> system. Using the Tri-Valley Transportation Model, 2010 peak-hour through trips were <br /> estimated to range from 15 percent on 1-680, to 20 percent on 1-580 through Tri-Valley, to <br /> 40 percent over the Alt~mont Pass. <br /> <br /> For persons working in the Tri-Valley but living elsewhere, the major residence locations <br /> will be other Contra Costa County cities, other A1Rmeda County cities, and the Central <br /> Valley. For persons living in the Tri-Valley but working elsewhere, the major job locations <br /> will be in other Alameda County cities. To a lesser extent, some will work in other Contra <br /> Costa County dties or in Santa Clara County. <br /> <br /> Mode Split - <br /> <br /> The existing mode split in Tri-Valley involves 4 percent transit use for peak-hour <br /> COmmute tripS, and that is not expected to change in the baseline 2010 forecasts. Ta- <br /> ble 4-4 shows the mode split estimated by the traffic model. The model predicts the drive- <br /> alone percentage to increase slightly. This conclusion is based on MTC-derived ass,,mp- <br /> tions about the costs of driving, which are assumed to keep pace with inflation. Tr~nAit --, <br /> and carpool usage are highly dependent on driving costs and travel times. Relative travel <br /> costs and time between drive-alone and other modes are not expected to change through <br /> 2010. BART will attract substantial ridership but will not cause a significant mode shift. _._ <br /> <br />Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc. 59 <br /> <br /> <br />