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Baseline Forecasts Traffic Forecasts The 2010 baseline forecasts show substantial growth in trnfflc volumes on Tri-Valley roads. Figure 4-2 shows traffic forecasts for several critical roadways. Plots showing tr~f~c forecasts for all Tri-Valley roads are included in the TechnicAl Appendix of the Tri-Valley Transportation Model report (Barton-Asehman Associates, Inc., July 1993). If these tr_affic increases occur as predicted, without road widenings and additions beyond the baseline network, severe congestion will result (see Figure 4-3). Congested locations are defined as freeways with a volume-to-capacity (V/C) ratio of more than 1.0 (volnme exceeds capacity) and arterial streets with V/C greater than 0.90 (volnme equals 90 percent of capacity or more). Figure 4-3 shows that by 2010 -]most all regional routes would be congested. In many cases the predicted V/C ratio is greater than 1.0. In reality, the volume can never exceed capacity. However, the traffic model reports demand vol-me (how many vehicles would like to use the road in the peak). When V/C ratios greater than 1.0 are shown, this means that "peak spreading" would occur. "Peak spreading" means that congested conditions would last longer than an hour. The effects of peak spreading are addressed more rigorously in the expected forecasts (Chapter 5). Intersection Levels of Service Intersection levels of sez'~ce (LOS) wero calculated using t, ra.~c model-generated turning movements and the VCCC program (see Table 4-2). Future year lane configurations were based on input from individual jurisdictions. The intersection analysis included 85 locations. Only two or three intersections are congested under existing conditions. Congestion is defined as LOS E or F. During the PM peak hour, the number of congested intersections would rise to 14 by the year 2000 and 36 by the year 2010, according to the baseline forecasts. '~ Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc. 50