CITY COUNCIL REGULAR MEETING AGENDA PACKET

Rincon Consultants, Inc. 180 North Ashwood Avenue Ventura, California 93003 805-644-4455 www.rinconcons ultan ts.com Municipal Electricity Impacts on Pleasanton’s GHG Reduction Targets The Pleasanton CAP 2.0 establishes regional targets based on annual GHG emissions estimates, while the GHG reductions from measures and actions are quantified on an annual and cumulative basis. The GHG reductions for municipal building decarbonization measures and actions were established assuming 100 percent municipal building and facilities enrolment in Renewable 100. Therefore, the GHG emissions attributable to each enrolment scenario were added to total annual community GHG emissions reductions to determine impacts to annual GHG targets outlined in the CAP 2.0. The CAP 2.0 targets are only quantified for the years 2030 and 2045 and do not take into account cumulative impacts. Therefore, the impacts of Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 have the same overall impact on meeting the City’s 2030 target. However, Scenario 2 allows for an additional ~7,000 MT CO2e of emissions over time. However, under Scenario 3 the City does not meet its 2030 goal (assuming all other actions from CAP 2.0 meet their quantified emissions reductions). Due to SB 100 all electricity in California is expected to be carbon free by 2045, and therefore, all three Scenarios are carbon free by that time. Table 4 summarizes the percent change in GHG emissions reductions compared to estimated reduction set in the CAP 2.0. Table 5 Scenario Percent Change from Target GHG Emissions 2030 2045 Scenario CAP Target Forecasted Emissions Emissions Over Target CAP Target Forecasted Emissions Emissions Over Target Scenario 1 341,188 339,852 -1,336 0 234,960 234,960 Scenario 2 341,188 339,852 -1,336 0 234,960 234,960 Scenario 3 341,188 341,369 181 0 234,960 234,960 Conclusion The analysis of the three scenarios regarding the City’s energy procurement choices reveals nuanced impacts on its quantified GHG emissions reductions. Assuming full implementation of CAP 2.0, the City has a small buffer of 1,336 MT CO2e which exceeds the 2030 reduction target. Scenarios 1 and 2 result in no effect on GHG targets since both assume 100% carbon free electricity in 2030. However, Scenario 3 highlights that even a partial shift away from 100 percent renewable energy can lead to discernible impacts to GHG targets in 2030 and 2045. By choosing long-term municipal building enrollment in Ava’s Bright Choice package, the community will fail to meet the 2030 target by 181 MT CO2e (see Table 4), effectively eliminating the small surplus of total emissions reductions achieved by the CAP 2.0 measures and actions. However, due to State RPS requirements driving electric utilities to produce zero emissions by 2045, all three scenarios are estimated to have no impact on 2045 community GHG emissions provided in the City’s CAP 2.0 (i.e. 234,960 MT CO2e). Although this analysis focuses on annual GHG emissions, it’s important to acknowledge the introduction of variations in cumulative emissions over time, a metric used to quantify GHG reductions from measures and actions in the CAP 2.0. Moreover, a municipality's decision to enroll in 100 percent renewable energy is often not solely driven by meeting targets, but to also set a precedent for the community and encourage greater participation in sustainable energy practices. Thus, while the Page 16 of 248