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City of Pleasanton Operating Budget • FY 2023/24 - FY 2024/259 Business License Tax Business License Taxes have been steadily increasing over the past ten years from $2.8 million in FY 2011/12 to $5.3 million in FY 2021/22. Staff initially expected Business License taxes to decline during the pandemic, but FY 2021/22 actuals represent an all-time high for this revenue category. For FY 2023/24, $5.0 million is projected. Based on year-to-date actuals, it is likely that staff will recommend increasing Business License Tax revenues during the FY 2023/24 Mid-year budget review. General Fund 10-Year Financial Forecast The General Fund 10-year financial forecast is the mechanism by which the long-term financial health of the City’s most important fund is monitored. By tracking and trending current and anticipated revenues and expenses, the forecast provides a tool for City management and policymakers to understand the impact of decisions to the City’s fiscal health. The forecast includes projections of current revenues and expenses, including pension contributions as estimated by staff and the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS). In addition, the forecast includes projected tax revenues associated with anticipated development over the next ten years. The General Fund 10- year financial forecast is included under Appendix D. Unlike prior budget cycles, given the current economic climate staff prepared two different scenarios. The first scenario assumes that the City’s revenues will continue to grow at a measured pace with the local economy not experiencing any major downturn during the 10-year period. The second scenario assumes a recession sometime during 2024, which will impact the City’s major revenue categories, including most tax-based revenues and recreation revenues. The chart below shows a ten-year surplus/deficit projection for each scenario. The City’s expenditures are expected to continue outpacing revenues for the next several years, largely due to growing pension obligations, which are projected to increase until FY 2030/31 based on the latest projection from CalPERS. As more employees in the CalPERS’ Classic Plan retire over time, the City’s active staffing pool will gradually consist of a higher percentage of employees in the CalPERS Pension Reform Act (PEPRA) Plan, which has reduced pension benefits.