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Tri-Valley Transportation Council │ 2020 Nexus Fee Update Study <br />August 2021 │ Final 25 <br /> <br />Tri-Valley on the 2020 Base Year networks and the 2040 No-Build and Build networks. The aggregate VHD <br />provide a reasonable system wide measure of the impact of new development on congestion and mobility. <br />According to the CCTA travel demand model, between 2020 and 2040, if no projects are undertaken, the <br />number of AM peak hours of delay is expected to increase 60 percent from 24,718 to 39,570 hours, while <br />the number of PM peak hours of delay is expected to escalate 88 percent from 15,613 to 29,376 hours. If <br />the projects are undertaken, the number of AM peak hours of delay would decrease 15 percent compared <br />to the 2040 No-Build scenario, whereas, the number of PM peak hour of delay would decrease 23 percent. <br />This modest improvement demonstrates that the proposed improvement projects only partially mitigate <br />future congestion by ne w development. Table 16 and Figure 14 show the comparison between the Future <br />2040 Build and Future 2040 No-Build scenarios. <br />In the aggregate, the comparison between the three scenarios showed that: 1) the 2020 Base Year <br />conditions are better than the Future 2040 No-Build conditions; 2) the Future 2040 Build conditions are <br />better than the Future 2040 No-Build; and 3) the Future 2040 Build conditions are not better than the 2020 <br />Base Year conditions. These comparisons demonstrated that, in the aggregate, new development does not <br />fund infrastructure needed to address existing deficiency caused by existing development. <br />Table 16: Future Build vs No Build Scenario Vehicle Hours of Delay (VHD) <br />Peak Period 2020 Base <br />Year <br />Future 2040 Difference <br />No-Build Build No-Build Build <br />AM Peak Hour 24,718 39,570 35,852 60% 45% <br />PM Peak Hour 15,613 29,376 25,813 88% 65% <br />Note: Hours of delay are based on trips with origin or destination in the TVTC region. <br />Figure 13: Future Build vs No Build Scenario Vehicle Hours of Delay (VHD) <br /> <br />Note: Hours of delay are based on trips with origin or destination in the TVTC region. <br />24,718 <br />15,613 <br />39,570 <br />29,376 <br />35,852 <br />25,813 <br />0 <br />5,000 <br />10,000 <br />15,000 <br />20,000 <br />25,000 <br />30,000 <br />35,000 <br />40,000 <br />45,000 <br />Morning Peak Hour Evening Peak HourVehicle Hours of Delay (VHD)2020 2040 No-Build 2040 Build