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Cities of Dublin and Pleasanton | Disaster Debris Management Plan | 2022 6 Severe Weather .5 1 .5 Vegetative, C&D, Hazardous Waste, HHW , White Goods, Soil, Mud, Sand, Vehicles, Household Items, Soil, Mud, and Rock from Mud Flows, Electronic Waste Low Low During an actual disaster, many factors impact the actual amount of debris generated. The information in this section is intended for planning and will likely be different from a real incident. 1.4.2 Debris Estimates Estimating the quantities of debris that may be generated by various natural or man-made disasters is a complex process. There are endless variables (type of incident, severity, etc.) that can dramatically impact the quantities of debris that may be generated by a disaster. Virtually no model that can estimate debris volumes and types with a high degree of certainty. However, debris volume estimates can be used as a resource when planning for a debris-generating incident. Debris volume estimates are based on a series of assumptions and should not be considered as the actual volumes following a disaster event. The debris volume estimate models use factors such as household population and parcel data to forecast the volume and type of potential debris in each disaster management area. The following sections examine the three types of events with the highest risk rating for the Cit ies and the potential debris generation from those events. They are earthquake, flood, and wildfire. The assumptions used in each debris volume estimation model are provided below, along with the estimated debris volumes and resource requirements. Earthquake Earthquakes result in structural damage to built-out infrastructure, including building stock and critical infrastructure lifelines. Earthquakes may create secondary impacts, including mudslides, fires, and hazardous materials incidents. The Cities are in close proximity to a number of major earthquake faults, including the Calaveras, Greenville, Hayward, Mount Diablo, and San Andreas faults. Since 1986, there have been thirteen 5.0M, or greater earthquakes near the Tri-Valley Area. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated in 2016 that there is a 72 percent probability of at least one 6.7M or greater earthquake occurring in the San Francisco Bay Area before 2043 (USGS, 2016). HAZUS modeling was used to estimate debris amounts for each City based on a scenario similar to the 1868 Hayward Earthquake. Details of the scenario are listed below. Figure 1 provides a shake map of similar event.  Scenario Name:1868 Haywood 7M  Earthquake Magnitude: 7.0M