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Table 5. Vital systems vulnerability to climate change impacts This table shows the extent to which Pleasanton's greatest climate change impacts (increased heat, extreme weather, wildfire, water uncertainty) are likely to affect the city's most vital public and natural systems. Increased heat Summers are expected to warm in Alameda County, with the number of extreme heat days and heat waves at least doubling by mid-century.1 Rising temperatures will exacerbate drought, wildfire, and water uncertainty. Rising temperatures impact nearly every vital system in Pleasanton. For example, a severe summer heat wave threatens public health from heat-related illness. Higher demand for air conditioning could strain the energy supply. Extreme weather Climate change will cause rain events to be less frequent but more intense.2 In the Bay Area, these heavy rain events are likely to increase flooding, landslides, and mudslides. Flooding, landslides, and mudslides can put people in harm’s way and increase risk of injury or death. Extreme weather can also cause property damage. Wildfire Climate change is causing more frequent, intense wildfires in the Bay Area, straining what the fire- prone landscape can handle. Rising temperatures, drought, and expanding wildland development increases wildfire risk for parts of the inland Bay Area.3 Wildfires are very likely to make air quality unhealthy: those with asthma and other health complications are at higher risk. Water uncertainty Pleasanton is particularly vulnerable to future water shortages. Warmer temperatures, an 80% decline in snowpack by 2100, and changing seasonal precipitation patterns will worsen summer water shortages and lead to more frequent, severe droughts. Pleasanton recently declared a Local Drought Emergency. These water shortage challenges will become more severe and frequent in the coming years, with impacts to everyday water use, natural landscapes, habitats, and even hydropower energy sources. 1 An extreme heat day is defined as a maximum air temperature of at least 95°F, a heat wave is defined as three to nine days with maximum air temperature of at least 95°F, and an extreme heat wave is defined as ten or more days with maximum air temperature of at least 95°F. Warm months are defined as June through October. Source: Vahmani, P., Jones, A.D., and Patricola, C.M. (2019). Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes. Environ. Res. Lett. 14(0840851). DOI: doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0 2 Cannon, S.H. and J.E. Gartner. (2005). Ch. 15 Wildfire-related debris flow from a hazards perspective. In: Debris-flow Hazards and Related Phenomena [eds. M. Jakob and O. Hungr]. Springer Praxis Books. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. 3 Ackerly, David, Andrew Jones, Mark Stacey, Bruce Riordan. (University of California, Berkeley). (2018). San Francisco Bay Area Summary Report. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. Publication number: CCCA4-SUM-2018-005. PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE Most Relevant Impacts Risk Level (1-5) Land Use 1 Energy Infrastructure 2 Energy Supply & Demand 3 Buildings 4 Dams 1 Transportation Systems 4 WATER MANAGEMENT Most Relevant Impacts Risk Level (1-5) Wastewater Infrastructure 1 Water Supply & Availability 5 Stormwater Infrastructure 3 NATURAL SYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY Most Relevant Impacts Risk Level (1-5) Terrestrial Habitats 3 Aquatic Habitats 4 Habitats & Biodiversity 3 Agriculture 2 PUBLIC HEALTH Most Relevant Impacts Risk Level (1-5) Mental Health 1 Heat-related Illnesses 4 Respiratory Illnesses 3 Acute Injuries & Displacement 4 Health Access & Emergency Services 2