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Birth Data <br />BIRTH BATES USED INICH E FALL 2QZ{1 PRO lr%T1!2NS <br />For Zip Codes 94566 and 94588 <br />Births Huth Batt: <br />ZtP Code Birthrate <br />% Change- Used to School Year <br />Birth Years MisiarTear 94566 Forecast <br />2004 71407 393 4404% 2009/10 <br />2005 i 2010 i 410 144Mk 2010/11 <br />~ 2006 2011 376 1s4.xa 2011/17 <br />2007 2012 365 178Mi 2012/13 <br />2008 ;_ 2013 340 132.1°h 2013/14 <br />2009 2W4 ^329 _-`117.5 Oli/IS <br />2010 2015 326 116.4-:12015/16 <br />2011 2016 135 119/-% 2 016/17 <br />2012 2017 WSJ lOLB% { 2017/10 <br />2013 2018 302 107.95 l0K 1 2018/19 <br />2a1a 7A1* [ 2e7 ioas�t� >� � m19�m _ <br />2016Tj 2020 aee 1111y7wr t ;D;��i <br />2016 1 2021 _ 760 92.9= L021 I 2021/22 <br />2017 T 2022 _ _ 280 1OO.Wtf LI00 2022/23 <br />2018 2023 258 9'_15 L_ 2023/N <br />2019 2024 [ 256 91.15_ C L006 2024/25 <br />7020 2025 I Data not 'n4.6ji I.- I 2025/26- <br />2021 2026 A�hle at 9_75 f Iof .d2a� 2026/27 <br />2022 ? 2027 �. 92.9St ! 1.022 2027123 <br />123 Study Areas <br />-?s norWe "fear to rhe change m tote; births for each year rompored te the baseyeor <br />Sourer: Cahfortua Deputment of Health Shttsocs <br />Mobility Factor <br />• Increase and decrease of <br />students in the district <br />boundary in established <br />neighhnrhoodS <br />• Home resale <br />• Apartment and multi <br />family housing movement <br />• Dropout or departures <br />• Housing turnover has <br />slowed with the pandemic <br />L Births PirtH 113112N <br />t zip Code % claw. BIAhra .. School <br />Used in <br />Butts Year 1pndrrYw 94588 Forecast <br />2004 2009 392 124.8% 2009/10 <br />2005 MO 390 124.2: 2010/11 <br />2006 2011 343 10925 2011/12 <br />2007 2012 1a4 ... 1086-,5 2012/13 <br />2008 r ma 369 117.5% 2013/14 <br />2009 l 2014 335 1"PA 201J/ls <br />2010 2015 354 1157% , 2015/16 <br />2011 2016 294 93655 �0.1!/1720122017 1 299 952% 17/l82013 2018 309 98.4% 10%18/19 <br />2014 2019 SlS 100.3% Increase 2019/20 <br />SelS� 7Yta a11a 11!tlit7h� 120028(21 <br />2016 2021__ M 106.7% .� L120 2021/22 <br />2017 2022 [ 321 10'_21 [ 1.073 "?.V25 <br />2018 2023 I 2971 94b% IL"3I` 2023/24 <br />2019 I 2024 297 946% 0.993 12pZi�2S <br />2020 2M Data riot 97.1 L020 12025/26 <br />As-al!sS!r a <br />2021 2026 tlmeof 95.49E 1.002 l 7004(27 <br />2021 adv 95.715-� -1.005 2QIT►7e <br />91 Study Areas <br />�= Highest Uve Birth Counts <br />Pleasanton Unified School Dislric' <br />• Birth rate peaked in <br />2004/2005 <br />Statewide trends <br />point to lower birth <br />rates <br />Birth rates are a large <br />factor in projecting <br />TK -K enrollment <br />• Used a 10% increase <br />on birth rates to <br />offset the pandemic <br />factor for 2020 <br />projections <br />Pleasonion Unified School Dislric' <br />sten USD Student Mobf ft I <br />Used in the FaI12020 Studv <br />ftWigi Student Data fjejm the last Blur years: Fall 2017 thr whi Fall 202T <br />AmendanceAvem ttbei tisis <br />t) 11114 <br />4toS <br />Sto6 <br />6to7 <br />7to8 <br />Bto9 <br />9to1� Obo <br />YItDI <br />AlLsal ES 1.01 <br />1.07 <br />1.02 <br />1.03 <br />1.04 <br />1.11 <br />1.05 <br />1.05 <br />1.04 <br />1.00 <br />0.99 <br />0.97 ~ <br />Donlon ES 1.06 <br />1.04 <br />1.02 <br />1.00 <br />1.00 <br />1.02 <br />100 <br />1.02 <br />0.95 <br />0.97 <br />0.98 <br />0.99 <br />Fairlands ES 1.04 <br />1.01 <br />1.01 <br />L001.01 <br />1.03 <br />1.02 <br />1.02 <br />0.97 <br />0.95 <br />0.98 <br />rs <br />Heat ES 1.09 <br />1.07 <br />L12 <br />1.02 <br />L03 <br />1.01 <br />0.99 <br />1.00 <br />0.96 <br />L00 <br />1.01 <br />Hurry P Mohr E5 1.08 <br />0.97 <br />1.04 <br />0.98 <br />1.05 <br />1.06 <br />L00 <br />0.98 <br />0.98 <br />0.98 <br />Lydlksen ES 1.11 <br />1.07 <br />1.07 <br />1.05 <br />1.05 <br />1.11 <br />1.07 <br />1.02 <br />1.12 <br />0.99 <br />1.01 <br />L00 <br />Valley View ES 1.04 <br />1.00 <br />1.07 <br />1.04 <br />0.99 <br />1.01 <br />1.03 <br />0.99 <br />1.09 <br />0.98 <br />0.99 <br />1.00 <br />Vintage Hills ES 1.10 <br />1.05 <br />1.03 <br />1.00 <br />1.05 <br />0.99 <br />1.00 <br />0.94 <br />1.07 <br />1.02 <br />0.97 <br />0.99 <br />Walnut Grove ES 1.09 <br />1.04 <br />1.06 <br />1.00 <br />1.05 <br />1.05 <br />1.03 <br />1.02 <br />1.00 <br />1.01 <br />0.98 <br />0.99 <br />District -wide Avenge: 1.07 <br />L04 <br />1-05 <br />1.01 <br />1.03 <br />1.04 <br />1.02 <br />1.00 <br />1.03 <br />0.99 <br />0.98 <br />0.99 <br />GREEN = net increase from one grade to another <br />RED = net decrease from one grade to another <br />BLUE = no change / straight pass through <br />