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CITY OF PLEASANTON CLIMATE ACTION PLAN UPDATE Scenarios will be based on available information, including 1) current and historical emissions trends, 2)outputs from existing models, such as regional transportation models,3)external factors,such as regional utility plans and state and federal policies,and 4)forecasted changes in demographics.The scenarios would include a forecast based on expected growth under a business-as-usual (BAU)scenario, as well as an adjusted forecast which would include existing legislative adjustments such as SB-100, EV adoption, clean fuels,and Title 24.The adjusted and business-as-usual forecast model will be used to conduct a gap analysis after targets are set under Task 5,discussed below.The forecasts will allow us to determine the GHG reductions required for the City of Pleasanton to meet their goals for the years listed above. Deliverables: • GHG forecast(BAU and adjusted) • Draft and final forecast memo • Technical appendix with forecast data and assumptions • Forecast tool and presentation Task 5 — Evaluate and recommend GHG emission reduction targets We will use the City's existing GHG emissions inventories to generate per-capita and gross reduction targets in line with SB-32 and B-30-15. Per-capita emissions targets are well established by the state through the 2017 Scoping Plan and may provide a more accurate portrayal of Pleasanton's emission changes over time due to the ability to normalize population fluxes.This will be especially important in light of the significant population growth of the City, something we have addressed while updating targets for neighboring high-growth cities like Dublin.These per-person estimates can also be translated into"per service person"(employees+population) projections.Our team will conduct a complete analysis of both options and present them to the City for approval.We will also evaluate targets associated with EO B-55-18 in the preliminary target analysis(carbon neutral by 2045), as this target will likely be codified by the state in the future and may supersede 2050 targets associated with EO-S-3-05(80%below 1990 levels by 2050). Deliverables: • Draft and final memo with City-approved targets for 2030, 2045(optional), and 2050 Task 6 — Recommend guiding principles and co-benefits Once the updated GHG reduction targets are in place,the City will need to clarify the process for selecting which strategies and actions to choose to meet the targets.To assess the suitability, impact,and comparative cost of tailored strategies,we will evaluate and rank strategies using multi-criteria analysis based on City input around its guiding principles and high-priority co-benefits.Criteria for evaluating options may include: • Effectiveness, including emissions-reduction and/or resilience-building potential and the potential for coordination and collaboration with stakeholders and partners. • Cost, including affordability and expenditure timeframe. • Realization of co-benefits(e.g., public health, quality of life, employment) • Equity in the distribution of benefits and consideration of disadvantaged populations. • Feasibility, including degree of City control, regulatory constraints,and technological considerations. • Buy-in from relevant internal departments and support from external partners and the community. • Urgency,given windows of opportunity in planning and policymaking and the timing of climate impacts. We recommend including the full range of evaluation criteria,while applying weights to prioritize them according to City needs, goals, and values.We will facilitate the prioritization process and advise on the implications of different weighting scenarios. Once the criteria are finalized,we will create an evaluation framework to guide the strategy prioritization phase in Task 7.We propose using Excel to create a dynamic framework with built-in weighting factors: C ASCADIA 6