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Nexus-Based Affordable Housing Fee Analysis for For-Sale Housing Draft Report 02/26/18 (Consumer Expenditure Survey) $5,200 E. Aggregate Food Spending (A x D) $5.2 million F. Food Away From Home Gross Receipts: Payroll Ratio (Economic Census) 3.59:1 G. Estimated Retail Payroll (E - F) $1.4 million H. Average Food Service Wage (Economic Census) $16,900 I. Estimated Total Retail Jobs (G - H) 83.5 J. Percent Age 20+ (Bureau of Labor Statistics) 87.5% K. Total Retail Workers Forming Households 73 J. Average Workers/Household (Census Data) 1.67 K. Estimated Households Created (K - 3) 44 L. Average Household Income (H x J) $28,200 M. Income Category Very Low-Income (up to 50% of AMI) In this simplified example, 1,000 new market-rate units sold to households earning $125,000 per year would create demand for 44 housing units for food and eating place workers with household incomes below 50 percent of AMI. Actual calculations and impact distinctions by type of household expenditure for various home values are shown in the series of tables presented in Appendix A. Demand for Public-Sector Workers In addition to the jobs created by the spending of the new market-rate households, this analysis also aims to evaluate the number of public-sector employees generated by the public service demands of new market-rate households. Rather than a comprehensive computation of public- sector employment, the analysis aims to be conservative by sampling only certain public-sector jobs (e.g., teachers and transportation providers) that are expected to grow in proportionate measure to household growth. Data from the 2015 Occupational Employment Survey for the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward MSA was used to determine the number of these public-sector employees needed to serve new market-rate development. This data was generated by the California Employment Development Department (EDD) and provides employment and wage information for a variety of occupational categories. EPS reviewed the data and sampled occupations that were public sector-related, as shown in Table A-7 in Appendix A. Based on the ratio of the selected public-sector jobs to the total households in the MSA, EPS estimates that approximately 57 government jobs or 34 households with a government employee are required per 1,000 total households. These figures are conservative (i.e., low) because numerous types of public-sector jobs are not included in this analysis (such as federal postal workers, County health and human services workers, etc.). Also, please note that EPS has no basis to distinguish differences in the number of public-sector workers demanded by households based on different income levels or in different sizes of units, so the same numbers of public-sector jobs are assumed to be generated by units of all sizes and prices. Combined Demand for Income-Qualified Workers The total number of income-qualified households required to support the expenditure and public- sector service needs of new market-rate units were determined based on the affordable housing income limits from HCD for a 3-person household. Table 5 summarizes the HCD income limits Economic&Planning Systems, Inc. 16 e\1sl000spsuuvka amo rs\aeporcwno aaok Nwsing\15ll 31reporcOdMlBb akd