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JDEDZ PROJECT REVIEW SEPTEMBER 2017 Civic Economics Analysis Our key findings are as follows: I: Costco Sales Forecasts Both city consultants, Century Urban (conducted in 2015) and ALH (2016), overestimate likely Costco sales based on a mix of outdated data and optimistic forecasting. II: Sales Tax Revenue Sharing Repayment As a result, the city's anticipated ability to make Sales Tax Sharing payments is in doubt, and its expectation of surplus sales tax revenues is inflated. III: Other Funding Sources for JDEDZ Of the other public funding sources for JDEDZ development, as much as $10.1 million in TIF funding is diverted from other pressing city transportation needs. IV: Impact on Pleasanton Retail Market ALH understates the impact of the JDEDZ on the Pleasanton retail market by (a) overestimating the size and growth of that retail market and (b) ignoring ongoing trends in the retail industry. In sum, the current JDEDZ proposal asks the City of Pleasanton to invest substantial public funds in a costly, long-term, speculative venture in a rapidly changing industry, and to do so based on erroneously optimistic forecasts of costs and benefits. City Council and the citizens of Pleasanton must demand better information before making such a momentous investment and developing this key tract of land. Civic Economics 2 P14-0852 and PUD -105, JDEDZ - Public Comments Provided for October 11, 2017 Planning Commission Meeting 40