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JDEDZ PROJECT REVIEW <br /> SEPTEMBER 2017 <br /> Civic Economics Analysis <br /> Our key findings are as follows: <br /> I: Costco Sales Forecasts <br /> Both city consultants, Century Urban (conducted in 2015) and ALH (2016), overestimate <br /> likely Costco sales based on a mix of outdated data and optimistic forecasting. <br /> II: Sales Tax Revenue Sharing Repayment <br /> As a result, the city's anticipated ability to make Sales Tax Sharing payments is in doubt, <br /> and its expectation of surplus sales tax revenues is inflated. <br /> Ill: Other Funding Sources for JDEDZ <br /> Of the other public funding sources for JDEDZ development, as much as $10.1 million in <br /> TIF funding is diverted from other pressing city transportation needs. <br /> IV: Impact on Pleasanton Retail Market <br /> ALH understates the impact of the JDEDZ on the Pleasanton retail market by (a) <br /> overestimating the size and growth of that retail market and (b) ignoring ongoing trends <br /> in the retail industry. <br /> In sum, the current JDEDZ proposal asks the City of Pleasanton to invest substantial public <br /> funds in a costly, long-term, speculative venture in a rapidly changing industry, and to do so <br /> based on erroneously optimistic forecasts of costs and benefits. City Council and the citizens of <br /> Pleasanton must demand better information before making such a momentous investment and <br /> developing this key tract of land. <br /> Civic Economics 2 <br />