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Ellen Holmgren, Administrative Assistant <br /> City of Pleasanton <br /> From: Matt Sullivan <br /> Sent: Friday,September 15, 2017 3:17 PM <br /> To: Mayor and City Council <citycouncil@citvofpleasantonca.gov>; Nelson Fialho<NFialho@citvofpleasantonca.gov>; <br /> Gerry Beaudin <gbeaudin@cityofpleasantonca.gov> <br /> Cc: Daniel Houston< <br /> Subject: INDEPENDENT ANALYSIS REVEALS CITY SUBSIDIES FOR COSTCO A BAD DEAL <br /> Pleasanton Citizens for Responsible Growth retained Civic Economics,an expert firm in municipal and economic <br /> financial planning,to provide an independent review of various aspects of the proposed Johnson Drive Economic <br /> Development Zone. The analysis involved a review of existing documents prepared by or for the City of <br /> Pleasanton analyzing the likely economic activity and impact associated with the JDEDZ. The results of the <br /> review indicate that the proposed JDEDZ financing plan presented by the city at the August 29,2017 City Council <br /> meeting is both flawed and misleading. <br /> Key findings of the analysis are as follows: <br /> Costco Sales Forecasts <br /> Both city consultants, Century Urban (conducted in 2015) and ALH (2016), overestimate likely Costco sales <br /> based on a mix of outdated data and optimistic forecasting. <br /> Sales Tax Revenue Sharing Repayment <br /> As a result, the city's anticipated ability to make Sales Tax Sharing payments is in doubt, and its expectation of <br /> surplus sales tax revenues is inflated. <br /> Other Funding Sources for JDEDZ <br /> Of the other public funding sources for JDEDZ development, as much as $10.1 million in TIF funding is diverted <br /> from other pressing city transportation needs. <br /> Impact on Pleasanton Retail Market <br /> ALH understates the impact of the JDEDZ on the Pleasanton retail market by (a) overestimating the size and <br /> growth of that retail market and (b) ignoring ongoing trends in the retail industry. <br /> 2 <br />