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Community Choice Aggregation Feasibility Analysis Alameda County Table 7. Scenario 2 Savings for Residential CCA Customers Monthly Bill with Bill with PG&E Residential Consumption Alameda Savings($) Savings(%) (kWh) ($) County CCA($) 2017 650 147 146 1 1% 2020 650 160 147 13 8% 2030 650 201 188 13 6% GHG Emissions The Alameda County CCA's GHG emissions under Scenario 2 are much lower than those under Scenario 1. This is due to the higher renewable content in the CCA's generation mix under Scenario, as well as the 50%hydro content in the non-renewable generation mix. Figure 18 compares the GHG emissions from 2017-2030 for the Alameda County CCA under Scenario 2 with what PG&E's emissions would be for the same load if no CCA is formed. The Alameda County CCA's emissions increase from 2017 to 2019 as the CCA is phased in across the entire county, and then remain flat through 2030. PG&E's GHG emissions are initially slightly lower than the CCA's emissions, but as the CCA's emissions flatten out, PG&E's emissions follow a generally upward trend and surpass CCA emissions in 2024, with the expected retirement of Diablo Canyon in 2025—further bumping up PG&E's emissions by approximately 30% in 2025. Following this, PG&E's emissions are expected to decrease from 2026 to 2030 as PG&E procures renewables to meet its mandated RPS goals. However, they still remain higher than the CCA's expected GHG emissions. Note that the analysis assumes "normal"hydroelectric output for PG&E. during the drought years, PG&E's hydro output has been at about 50%of normal, and the utility has made up these lost megawatt-hours through additional gas generation. This means that our PG&E emissions are the PG&E emissions shown here are lower that the "current" emission. If, as is expected by many experts, the recent drought conditions are closer to the new normal, then PG&E's GHG emissions in the first 8 years would be approximately 30% higher, resulting in GHG savings for Scenario 2 rather than parity. July,2016 22 MRW&Associates,LLC