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Community Choice Aggregation Feasibility Analysis Alameda County 1. Minimum RIPS Compliance: The CCA meets the state-mandated 33%RPS requirement in 2020 and the 50% RPS requirement in 2030; 2. More Aggressive: The CCA's supply portfolio is set at 50% RPS from the first year onward, plus additional amounts of non-RPS compliant large hydro power to reduce GHG emissions; 3. Ultra-Low GHG: The CCA's supply portfolio is set at 50%RPS in the first year and increases to 80% RPS by the fifth year. To evaluate these scenarios, we assumed a simple portfolio consisting of RPS-eligible resources in an amount dictated by the particular scenario, with the balance of supply provided by non- renewable wholesale market purchases. In each case, we assumed that the RPS portfolio was predominately supplied with solar and wind resources, which are currently the low-cost sources of renewable energy. We assumed that solar and wind each contribute 45% of the renewable energy supply on an annual basis. To provide resource diversity and partly address the need for supply at times when solar and wind production are low, we assumed the remaining 10% of renewable supply would be provided by higher-cost baseload resources, such as geothermal or biomass. As mentioned above, the CCA may choose to source a portion of its supply from local resources. Alameda County has significant potential for both wind and solar production. The wind resource is located in the Altamont Pass and largely consists of repowering existing turbines with a smaller number of much larger turbines. Costs are generally competitive with other California wind areas, however, the ability to develop projects is constrained by environmental impacts, primarily avian mortality in the Altamont Pass. A Programmatic Environmental Impact Report (PEIR) for the Alameda County portion of the Altamont Pass repowering would allow development of up to 450 MW. Since this amount of capacity may be developed regardless of whether the CCA is formed, and CCA local procurement wouldn't necessarily increase the amount of wind developed in the Altamont Pass, we have made the conservative assumption that the wind portfolio would effectively be from projects located outside of Alameda County. Thus, for the purpose of this study, we assumed that all of the local procurement by the CCA would be from solar energy, including a mix of smaller and larger projects.22 Figure 7 through Figure 9 show the assumed build-out of new resources under each of the three scenarios outlined above. "Note that customer-owned generation,such as rooftop photovoltaic panels,is reflected in the load forecast rather than considered part of the supply portfolio. (I.e.,the load forecast is what the CCA must serve,not the gross consumption at the home prior to factoring in customer-side PV.) July,2016 7 MRW&Associates,LLC