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Community Choice Aggregation Feasibility Analysis Alameda County Sensitivity Analysis In addition to the base case forecast described above, MRW assessed alternative cases to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to possible conditions that could impact the Alameda County CCA's rate competitiveness. The key factors are summarized in Table ES-2. Table ES-2. actor Sensitivity Chang:- Relicensing Diablo Canyon6 Increases PG&E's generation rates by' 30%' Increased cost of renewable power 10% higher through 2021, 20% higher in 2021 and 2022,and 30% higher after 2022 High PCIA("exit fee") Retains the high PCIA expected in 2018 (2.1C/kWh) through 2030 US Energy Information Administration's High Gas High Natural Gas Prices Price Scenario, which is about 60% higher than the base case price Low PG&E Rates PG&E rates 10% lower than base forecast Stress Scenario Combined impact of high renewable costs, high PCIA, high gas price and low PG&E rates. The sensitivity results are shown as the difference between the annual average PG&E generation rate and the Alameda County CCA rates and are shown in Figure ES-7. Scenario 1 (RPS Compliance)is the least costly scenario for the CCA and therefore has the highest rate differentials under most of the sensitivity cases considered. Scenario 2 (Accelerated RPS), though still quite competitive with PG&E, fares slightly worse, with a rate differential typically about 8% lower than in Scenario 1. Scenario 3 (80%RPS by 2021)has the highest renewable content and is the costliest scenario, with rate differentials much lower than those in the other two scenarios. While Scenario 3 is anticipated to be competitive with PG&E in most cases(on average),the margins are much lower, particularly in the"High Renewable Prices"sensitivity 6 Between when this study was conducted and the final report released,PG&E announced its intention to retire Diablo Canyon at the end of its current license and replace it with storage,energy efficiency and renewables. Qualitatively,if we replaced DC with storage,energy efficiency and renewables,the net result would be PG&E costs that are between the base PG&E cost and the Diablo Canyon Relicense). The new cooling system,which would be required per state regulations implementing the Federal Clean Water Act,Section 316(b),would alone have an estimated cost of$4.5 billion.It is because of these very high costs that the base case assumes the that power plant is retired. 8The Alameda County CCA rate includes the PG&E exit fees(PCIA charges)that will be charged to CCA customers but does not include the rate adjustment for the reserve fund. July 2016 ix MRW&Associates,LLC