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Community Choice Aggregation Feasibility Analysis Alameda County Greenhouse Gas Emissions As modeled, there are no greenhouse gas benefits for Scenario 1—in fact there are net incremental emissions. This is because both the CCA and PG&E are meeting the same RPS requirements, but over 40%of PG&E's supply portfolio is made up of nuclear4 and large hydro generation,both of which are considered emissions-free. The Alameda County CCA's GHG emissions under Scenario 2 are much lower than those under Scenario 1. This is due to the higher renewable content in the CCA's generation mix under Scenario 2, but more importantly, the 50%hydro content in the non-renewable generation mix. Figures ES-5 compares the GHG emissions from 2017-2030 for the Alameda County CCA under Scenario 2 with what PG&E's emissions would be for the same load if no CCA is formed. PG&E's GHG emissions are initially comparable to,the CCA's emissions. The expected retirement of Diablo Canyon in 2025 increases PG&E's emissions by approximately 30% in 2025.5 Following this, PG&E's emissions are expected to decrease from 2026 to 2030 as PG&E procures renewables to meet its mandated RPS goals. However,they still remain higher than the CCA's expected GHG emissions. The results of Scenarios 1 and 2 illustrate that if the CCA wants to reduce is net carbon emissions, it must include hydroelectric (or other low- or carbon-free resources) in its portfolio. Note that the analysis assumes "normal" hydroelectric output for PG&E. during the drought years, PG&E's hydro output has been at about 50%of normal, and the utility has made up these lost megawatt-hours through additional gas generation. This means that our PG&E emissions are the PG&E emissions shown here are lower that the "current" emission. If, as is expected by many experts, the recent drought conditions are closer to the"new normal, then PG&E's GHG emissions in the first 8 years would be approximately 30%higher, resulting in GHG savings for Scenario 2 rather than parity. Similar to Scenarios 1 and 2, under Scenario 3 the Alameda County CCA's GHG emissions first increase from 2017 to 2019 as the CCA is phased in into the entire county. However, in Scenario 3 this increase is partially offset by the increasing renewable content in the CCA's supply mix (Figure ES-6). Thus the CCA's emissions in this scenario grow at a slower rate from 2017 to 2019 than in the first 2 scenarios, then decrease until 80% renewable supply is achieved in 2021, and remain flat thereafter. The CCA's GHG emissions under this scenario are lower than PG&E's expected emissions for the same load if no CCA is formed, for all years except for 2017 for which the emissions are comparable. 4 40%of PG&E portfolio is nuclear and hydro 2017-2024; in 2024 the Diablo Canyon retires and is replaced by gas- fired generation. 5 Between when this study was conducted and the final report released,PG&E announced its intention to retire Diablo Canyon at the end of its current license and replace it with storage,energy efficiency and renewables. Qualitatively,if Diablo Canyon is replaced with storage etc.,PG&E GHG emissions would be significantly lower than the PG&E base case(i.e.,the big jump up on PG&E GHG emissions in 2025 would not occur). July 2016 vii MRW&Associates,LLC