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Pleasanton Unified School District SY 2014/2015 Report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The City's pending approval of one of several alternatives for the East Pleasanton Specific Plan has prompted the Pleasanton Unified School District (PUSD) to revisit the demographic study conducted by Davis Demographics & Planning in Fall 2012. These projections are based solely upon school of residence and are designed to alert the District as to when and where the student population shifts will occur. Currently, the PUSD has a total of 9 elementary (TK-5) schools, three middle (6-8) schools and two comprehensive (9-12) high schools. At Fall 2014 CBEDS, the District reported a total of 6,269 TK-5, 3,594 6-8 students and 4,903 9-12 students for a total of 14,766 TK-12 students enrolled in the District. Over the next ten years, decline is expected for the District. This decline is expected to occur in part due to changes in development schedules but primarily due to falling birth rates observed in the region in recent years. A net decline of 467 TK-5 students is forecasted for the end of the projection period in 2024. In analyzing the individual elementary (TK-5) attendance area projections it becomes clear that the District's elementary attendance area projection that the decline will be felt across the district with 8 of the District's 9 elementary attendance areas expected to see declines in their resident student populations over the next 10 years. The following schools are listed in order of greatest increase to greatest decline over the next ten years: Alisal ES (net growth of +284 TK-5 students), Hearst ES (-39 TK-5 students), Fairlands ES (-55 TK-5 students), Vintage Hills ES (-84 TK-5 students), Walnut Grove ES (-90 TK-5 students), Lydiksen ES (-96 TK students), Valley View (-113 TK-5 students), Donlon ES (-126 TK-5 students) and Mohr (-163 TK-5 students). The District is currently near its desired maximum average elementary enrollment of 700 students. With birth rates expected to introduce smaller incoming kindergarten classes and plans to construct units in East Pleasanton delayed until 2018 the District can expect to remain under this threshold through at least 2024. Previous recommendations suggested the District would need to consider at least one facility in the northwestern portion of the District and another site possibly as soon as 2020 in East Pleasanton. Since this time, birth rates have fallen considerably causing the size of projected incoming Kindergarten classes to fall as well. The Fall 2014 kindergarten class was the result of 677 births reported for the two zip codes making up the District in 2009. Skip ahead to 2012 and we see that the total number of births has fallen all the way to 590 representing a decline of nearly 13%. Such a decline will inevitably lead to smaller incoming kindergarten classes providing relief to the impacted northwest region of the District. DDP no longer sees enough growth occurring in the northwest region to justify the opening of a new school but the Donlon attendance area could be redrawn to more evenly distribute the resident population amongst other attendance areas with room to add. Whether or not a facility is needed in East Pleasanton becomes a bit more complicated. Based upon the District's desire to keep an average minimum enrollment above 600 students, DDP does not see the need for a facility to be added to East Pleasanton before 2024 as doing so would drop the District average enrollment to 580 students per campus. However it is likely that the facility will be needed shortly after 2024 as only 50% of the EPSP is expected to be completed at this time. Adding 198 students to the District's resident TK-5 student population would bring the average enrollment above the District's desired minimum of 600 students with 10 facilities. With 50% (650 units) of the EPSP still scheduled to be constructed beyond 2024 it becomes easier to assume that the need for a facility at this location is likely to rise rather quickly. While DDP no longer recommends opening the EPSP facility before 2024 based upon the latest demographic and residential construction trends, DDP recommends that the District still continue to plan to open a site at this location as it will eventually be needed if EPSP Single Family Alternative 4 is approved and constructed as currently planned. No additional middle school or high school facilities will be need over the next 10 years based upon the most recent projections. The District needs to closely monitor the growth of the residential development, reported births and update student projections annually to make sure to track any new trends that could impact future student population trends. Doing so would give a better idea of exactly when any plans to adjust potential capacity issues would need to be implemented as the time nears. DDP was provided with the best available information at the time of this report(grade configurations,current attendance boundaries and capacities). The circumstances regarding future facilities are subject to change,especially when dealing with new housing construction. The suggestions presented in this report are based upon the trends that the District is currently experiencing LEN 0 DAVIS March 31,2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY P'El BEPIANNING,NC.