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DRAFT Commissioner Allen requested Mr. Dolan to explain, for the benefit of the audience, what happened in 2012 and 2013 in terms of exceeding the Growth Management Ordinance's allowed allocation of 350 units, and how that excess in units fits with the Growth Management Ordinance. Mr. Dolan stated that one of the issues in the lawsuit was that the City had to accommodate RHNA, so the housing cap was thrown out and the Growth Management Ordinance was basically put into question. He explained that as a result, during that planning period, the City had to allow for enough development to meet RHNA; the State was not going to allow the City to not have any zoning for three - fourths of the planning period and then start from zero to 350 per year only. He pointed out that the City had shut everything down through no inventory in the beginning and consequently had to essentially allow all the way up to the total that had been required in the last housing cycle. He noted that the City never even got there and could not enforce the annual limitation during that planning period. He noted that the Council then stated that while the City had lost its housing cap, the pace of growth was still a concern; because the City no longer has the cap, the Council wanted to be a little bit stricter and adopted a program whereby the annual allocation was going to be the total RHNA assignment for the planning period divided by the number of years. He noted that based on the numbers for this RHNA cycle, the City's annual allocation that it can meter out through the Growth Management Ordinance starting July 1, 2014 is 235 units per year, which is lower than the established 350 units. He indicated that the next RHNA number will then be adjusted based on what the City's RHNA assignment will be, and the State is not necessarily always consistent about the length of the planning period either, depending on things that happen at the State and when certain agencies issue their numbers. Commissioner Ritter referred to the table that showed the different projects and their numbers on the low- and very-low- income units. He inquired if the likelihood of those units being built is in the 80 percent or 90 percent, and if the City will be hurting itself should one of them is thrown out. Mr. Dolan replied that how close the City should get to the exact number is an inexact science. He pointed out that the City did have a cushion the last time. He added that if he submits something on the inventory, he has to be able to look HCD in the eye and say that it is a good housing site and might happen. He indicated that he did not want to speculate on what the chances are on each of those projects. He noted that there are certain people who think the ideal housing site is one that is designated for residential development but know that development is unlikely. He added that the City clearly did a pretty good job last time because it got real projects on a lot of the sites. Commissioner Ritter noted that it is still good then to have a surplus. Mr. Dolan stated that HCD has told staff that certain people have called and questioned some of the City's sites, so there is no assurance that every single one of the sites is going to pass muster. DRAFT EXCERPT: PLANNING COMMISSION MINUTES, 8/13/2014 Page 4 of 18