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Task 3 : Fiscal Impact Analysis The fiscal impact analysis will quantify the effects of new growth in Pleasanton based on operating revenues and expenditures at buildout. EPS will develop a comprehensive fiscal impact model to be used as a policy tool for assessment of fiscal performance of new growth. While the analysis will focus on the City of Pleasanton's General Fund budget, other major funds will be considered. The analysis will be designed to distinguish between land use, location, and density of new growth to quantify fiscal performance within these categories. The categories will be based on the recently adopted General Plan designations (i.e., low-density residential, medium-density residential, high-density residential, mixed-use residential and commercial, business park, etc.) For example, high-density residential, characterized by compact infill development near transit, is likely to result in lower service cost relative to low-density residential along the City's fringe. It is understood that the City uses a biennial budget starting in odd numbered years. EPS will base its analysis on the adopted FY2011-12 budget. Additionally, EPS will evaluate the City's historic budgetary performance to make sure that FY2011-12 budget adequately reflects long-term historic trends. To the extent the current budget has abnormal revenues or costs, EPS will utilize specific items based on historic patterns and input from City staff, as necessary. EPS will utilize forecasting approaches to each major line item that best fits the unique structure and budgetary trend. Key service and revenue forecasting methodologies are described below. Subtask 3.1: Public Service Cost Forecasts EPS will develop a description of the demand for key public services associated with new growth based on review of the City budget and discussion with City staff. Public service areas to be covered will include public safety (e.g., police and fire); parks and community services (parks and recreation); traffic and road services; general government, planning and development services; and public works. Budget elements with minimal impacts, minimal costs, or high levels of fee-based cost recovery will be documented. Public service costs will be evaluated based on the public service needs driven by new population and employment growth. As part of this task, EPS will conduct in-person interviews with the City's key departments, including police, fire, public works, and parks and community services. Cost estimates for other services will be developed based on information obtained from the existing City budget and recent EPS fiscal analyses in Pleasanton and other comparable jurisdictions, and additional research. Given that different costs have various demand structures and trends, EPS will utilize a range of approaches, as necessary. In some cases, marginal cost approach will be utilized, reflecting unique relationships between each service provision and demand from new growth, and any current excess or deficient capacity. In other cases, estimates of demand for services will be based on "per-employee" or"per-resident equivalents" as appropriate. Subtask 3.2: Revenue Forecasts EPS will evaluate the effects of new population and employment growth in Pleasanton on key City revenue categories. A range of approaches will be utilized to forecast new 2 II:IFISCe:Impact Report\ExhiNt F to Conf2R.00c