04 ATTACHMENT 2 - Laserfiche WebLink

Retail Mixed Use Market Study Update 1 January 6, 2010 space at 92 percent occupancy (based on the park's historical average occupancy over 13 years) and 3) a future scenario when the currently entitled but as yet undeveloped space is completed and 92 percent occupied. Employment figures used in this report are based on data from the Hacienda Business Park Owners Association, and are exclusive of park employees who both live and work in the park (employee - residents). To avoid double - counting employee- residents, the number of employee- residents is subtracted from the total park employment. Employee- residents are estimated using 2009 Journey to Work Data from Caritas Inc I and from 2000 Census Longitudinal Employment data, applying the following assumptions: • 95 percent of all residents who walked to work worked in Hacienda • 75 percent of all residents who bike to work worked in Hacienda • 90 percent of all residents who drive to work in less than 9 minutes work in Hacienda; and • 11 percent of all residents who worked in Hacienda were estimated to be retail employees and therefore not in office /R &D /flex jobs.' Under the first scenario, with a 21 percent vacancy rate, there are approximately 15,926 office /R &D /flex employees in the park, or 15,598 excluding employee- residents. This reflects a 4.5 percent increase in park employment from 2005. When employment in the park resumes a stable occupancy rate of 92 percent, employment will likely increase to 18,385 employees, or 18,006 excluding employee - residents." Assuming current entitlements for office development are eventually constructed, the number of non - retail park workers will increase to an estimated 21,362 (at a 92 percent occupancy rate), or 20,922 excluding employee - residents (approximately 11 percent lower than the estimate used in the 2005 study). ' This section estimates the demand generated by park employees and park residents separately. The demand generated by employee - residents is included in the residential retail demand estimate. Claritas Inc, a San Diego market research company, provides updated demographic data modeled on 2000 Census data. " US Census Bureau, LED Origin- Destination Data Base " This analysis uses a more conservative assumption about the stable occupancy rate than the 2005 report - 92 percent in this study vs. 95 percent in the 2005 report. The 92 percent stable occupancy rate is based on historical occupancy rates over a 13 year period. Estimates of stable employment in this analysis are therefore lower than the 2005 report (18,172 vs. 19,325 employees at current built space), despite the increase in actual employment from 2005 to 2009. -16-